Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Chance of a Lifetime

I love looking at stats when I’m bored, so I have checked out the latest odds on Charlton getting promoted this season. Not at a bookies though, but using the great Sportsclubstats

For all the doom merchants out there, especially those who have gone very quiet since Saturdays thumping of MK Dons, Charlton currently have a better than 50% chance of being automatically promoted come next May. It’s gets better though, for if Charlton maintain their points per game ratio (which is currently 0.667 per game) over the rest of the season and finish with 92 points, the odds on promotion are 99.5%! Anything above 96 points, and we are 100 per cent certain to go up!

In fact, only with a 50% points ratio over the final 30 matches (45 points from 12 wins, nine draws, and nine losses) will see any possibility of the Addicks falling out of the play-off places, and even then the likelihood is we will finish inside the top five. For Charlton to have a realistic chance of falling out of the play-off places, we would need to finish with under 71 points, so we are almost half-way there.

And for the really negative fans, the chances of us getting relegated only start if we lose about 16 of the remaining 30 games. Surely not many of you think it can get that bad?

Of course, being Charlton anything could happen, and probably will, so maybe that remaining 12% chance of winning the league should be backed?

There, that’s made you feel better hasn’t it!


Nice one!
Home and dry then.
Just a minor point Pedro, 0.667 is Charlton's success ratio, the points per game average is exactly two.

Fingers crossed we can keep it up or even improve upon it.
Cheers Ketts, and let's hope so. I do say the "points per game ratio (which is currently 0.667 per game)", that is, two-thirds of the points on offer per game (and not just winning 0.667 points per match), but I know what you mean (it can be a tad confusing when dealing with fractions and percentages at the same time!). I just hope that the players can take confidence from such stats...?

Great stats, cheers Pedro
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